GOOG Stock Buzz: Investor Domination vs. Reality

Okay, so the claim is that Alphabet (Google) and Microsoft will be worth more than Apple by the end of 2026, all thanks to AI. Bold prediction. Let's see if the numbers back it up, shall we?

The Gemini Hype Train

The argument hinges on Gemini 3, Google's chatbot, supposedly crushing benchmarks and powering AI overviews for 2 billion monthly users. Six hundred and fifty million monthly active users for the Gemini app, catching up to ChatGPT, and 70% of Google Cloud customers using Gemini – those are the figures being thrown around. It all sounds impressive, but let’s consider the source. Google is hardly going to downplay its own product, right?

The article mentions Google Cloud revenue growing 34% year-over-year. Solid growth, no doubt. But how much of that is specifically attributable to Gemini? That's the key question they conveniently sidestep. We're left guessing at the real impact of their flagship AI product. Color me unconvinced, at least for now.

The comparison to Apple is also… interesting. Apple's market cap is around $4 trillion. For Google to surpass that, it needs a serious catalyst, and "AI overviews" on search results, while potentially valuable, feels more like incremental improvement than a revolution. It's like saying a new coat of paint will turn a bicycle into a Ferrari.

I've looked at hundreds of these reports, and this sort of vague attribution always raises a red flag. Is Gemini driving new revenue, or simply shifting existing revenue streams? The difference is crucial.

Microsoft's Cloud Play

Then there's Microsoft, supposedly capturing AI contracts for Azure. Again, the devil is in the details. While Microsoft's cloud business is undoubtedly strong, are these AI-specific contracts truly incremental, or are they cannibalizing other cloud services? We need to see the breakdown to understand the real picture.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Where are the actual revenue numbers for these "AI contracts"? Are we talking millions, billions, or just a bunch of press releases? The silence is deafening.

One thing is for sure: the stock market is a popularity contest. Sentiment matters. And, according to some sources, investors are reiterating confidence in Google to become the next $5 trillion firm after Nvidia. This is where the Reddit and X chatter comes in. It's not hard data, obviously, but it does reflect the overall mood. The problem is, moods can change on a dime.

It's also worth remembering that Nvidia, Palantir Technologies Inc, Strategy Inc, and Walmart Inc also dominated investor buzz this week. Nvidia is up 30.61% year-to-date and 23.16% over the year, while Palantir is up 107.14% year-to-date and 153.82% over the year. Each company’s buzz has its own drivers and doesn’t necessarily reflect the overall market. According to NVDA, WMT, GOOG And More: 5 Stocks That Dominated Investor Buzz This Week - Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), investor buzz can be driven by factors specific to each company.

The AI Hype Needs Hard Numbers

I am skeptical. The argument relies heavily on future potential and vague claims about AI dominance. Sure, Alphabet and Microsoft are major players in the AI space, but so are a lot of other companies. For either of them to eclipse Apple in market cap within two years requires not just growth, but explosive growth. And that explosive growth needs to be clearly visible in the financials, not just hyped in press releases.

This whole prediction feels like a classic case of extrapolating current trends without considering the inevitable bumps in the road. The AI landscape is evolving rapidly. There are regulatory hurdles, ethical concerns, and technological limitations that could easily derail even the most ambitious plans.

I get the feeling that the writers are getting a little too excited about the potential of AI, and not really looking at the cold, hard data.

So, What's the Real Story?

Ultimately, this "prediction" is more of a marketing pitch than a data-driven forecast. The numbers simply don't support the level of certainty being projected. Could Alphabet and Microsoft close the gap with Apple? Maybe. Will they surpass it by 2026? I'll believe it when I see the quarterly reports.